Test what your model assumes about the drug.

Diligence models struggle to price inherently complex biology. Bridge the gap between scientific assumptions and financial scenarios with Fern™.

PoS decomposition

Break down the assumptions behind the probability of success. Check the evidence for each one before using the estimate.

Reference class 38 programs

Adjustments 67 sources

FilterProgramsBase rate

Phase

+Therapeutic area

+Modality

+Biomarker selection

Reference class

CategoryFindingsSourcesEffect on odds

Target validation

Efficacy

Safety

Trial design

Regulatory

Supports Mixed Against Not additive

Proposed

0% Base rate Yours 50%

Competitive landscape

Compare the field by efficacy, tolerability and convenience. See where the drug stands and where information is missing.

Peak share

OrderHighest first

Based onEvidence

Instructions

Rank programs by expected patient share at peak. Programs less effective than standard of care rank last. Among the rest, prescribers in this indication choose on efficacytolerability, then route and dosing frequency.

Save

Catalyst calendar

Follow the trial results, FDA decisions and earnings on your watchlist. When news lands, know what it means for the dates ahead.

Oct 5 – 30 Watchlist · 18 programs

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30

Data

PDUFA

Data

AdCom

Data

Same target

Earnings

Data

Same indication

PDUFA

Earnings

Phase 3 positive

Bar raisedOct 27 · Data

Response rate to beat32%41%

6 sources

Valuation

Run the scenarios in your own model against what the price already assumes. Trace any input back to its source.

Risk-adjusted NPVDCF value

Discount rate

Launch year

Peak sales ↓ · PoS → 32% 39% 46% 53% 60% $0.9B $1.2B $1.5B $1.8B $2.1B

Base caseShaded vs. market cap

Valuation build House model rNPVDCF · risk in the rate

Line itemBasisValue

Commercial

Net salesPeak $1.5B

Operating costs−

Partner royalty12% of net sales−

Tax−

+ Add line

Unrisked NPVNPV at 18%Rate implied by PoS 46%

Development

Probability of successFrom PoS build× 46%

R&D to approval−

Risk-adjusted NPVDCF value

Other pipeline and net cash

Equity valuevs market cap −12%−14%−35%

Persistent inter-case memory.

Enterprise-grade security and data control.

Seamless integration with existing systems.

See the full picture.

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