Get in touch

Know which past failures matter
before moving forward with
a drug asset.

Get in touch
A drug can change names, sponsors and owners over
the course of development. A comparison built only
from programs still in development can leave out a
drug that tested the same approach to the disease.
The most relevant scientific precedent may no
longer be in development.
Fluorescence micrograph of a tissue section, glands and cell nuclei picked out in cyan, magenta and orange.

Why a drug failed determines whether the failure matters now. A handful of drugs may share a target or disease and fail for entirely different reasons. The cause may be the molecule itself, the dose, the treatment schedule or the patients selected. Seeing what drove it early on makes it easier to judge what the asset is worth and whether it should move forward.

Fern™

From scattered evidence to a position you can defend.

Evaluate
See the asset with its full
history in view.
Compare
Test it against the
programs that matter.
Investigate
Go deeper on the questions
that can change the decision.
Conclude
Give the team a
conclusion they can use.
Case study

Two oral GLP-1 drugs were dropped after liver concerns. What does that mean for the next one?

At first glance, both of these legacy drugs were killed by the exact same red flag. But a closer look at the buried trial data, later publications, and FDA transcripts reveals that treating these comparables equally misprices the actual risk. One drug showed consistent liver issues across three separate trials, while the other was abruptly halted over a single incident. Reassembling that fragmented history offers a completely different lens on the safety profile, setting up an anti-consensus view of what happens next.
Read more Read more
Capital allocators For Investment banking Drug developers For Biotechs